SEC PRIMER (Week 9): What are we wearing this Halloween?
Sooner or later, we all have to take off our masks.
Many will be worn this weekend. Some can be seen through.
Others, not so much.
Then there are those masks worn on Halloween but that’s another story.
Which brings us to Tuesday. The first College Football Playoff poll will be released to the masses. Naysayers await. The opinion is there will be plenty of carnage once it’s released.
OK, that might be overdoing it, especially since it’s the first one and usually, the committee takes it easy on the controversy.
But there will be some consternation, which brings up the mask metaphors.
Do we really know what these teams look like?
Let’s break down the current Associated Press Top 10. What do we know at this point?
Start at the top, complete with the mask they wear….
PRINCE CHARMING
Georgia (7-0) – This one’s easy. Or is it? Yes, the Dogs have been the most consistent team this season but that’s helped by the fact that the offenses they’ve faced would have trouble scoring in a Japanese Geisha house (hat tip to an old line from a M*A*S*H episode). More will be known after Saturday. But as of now, Georgia is No. 1 and for good reason.
Cincinnati (7-0) – We’ve spent a lot of time on the Bearcats. Their record is good but the schedule has holes, make that craters. When we reach December, we still won’t know just how good they are. And that will lead to one of two results…. the committee taking a chance on a tainted schedule or the decision to keep the interlopers out.
OLD MAN WITH WARTS
Alabama (7-1)/Ohio State (6-1)/Oklahoma (8-0) – The names work but are they worthy of a berth in the playoff? The Sooners don’t have a loss but have peered over the ledge a few too many times. Alabama and Ohio State have premium offenses but the other side of the ball is remarkably uninspiring at times. It makes the month of November rather presumptuous considering all three have games that can be lost yet, all three have the talent to run the table.
WICKED WITCH
Michigan (7-0)/Michigan State (7-0)/Oregon (6-1) – The names cast a spell on the voters. Yes, all three have had incredible moments but can we rely on their distinction? Do you trust the words of a witch? One will most certainly melt in the Battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy this weekend. But can the winner withstand the pursuit in the final four games. As for Oregon, don’t get too close, yet you might see the real team behind the mask and you might not like what you see. Besides, it is a Pac-12 team, right?
SLIMER (From Ghostbusters)
Iowa (6-1) – Fat, slimmy and eating up a spot in the Top 10. That describes the Hawkeyes. They keep leaving a trail of ectoplasm wherever they go. Chances are, they will be a memory after the weekend and a trip to Camp Randall.
PENNYWISE the DANCING CLOWN (from It)
Ole Miss (6-1) – No, this is not meant to say the Rebels are climbing out of the sewer to get to the pinnacle of college football. But how much of this is a ruse? Can they maintain this trek despite providing a history of failure? Add to it, no open week the rest of the season sans a lot of depth. Yet, they lure in unsuspecting victims and make them believe they are legit. Time will tell but we all know what happens to the creepy clown in the end.
It’s early but don’t take off those masks yet. There’s candy out there waiting to be gobbled up.
SEC Schedule for Oct. 31 (Rankings are from AP)
(1) Georgia (7-0, 5-0 SEC) vs. Florida (4-3, 2-3 SEC)
2:30 p.m. CDT • CBS
Jacksonville, Fla. • TIAA Bank Field (82,871)
Series: UGA leads, 52-4-2 (ALast meeting – 2020, UF 44-28)
Last week: Georgia and Florida did not play
What about UGA/FLA
UF is facing a No. 1 ranked team for the second time this season, a first for the program. In 17 previous tries, FLA has three wins against No. 1 teams – Fla St (1996 Sugar Bowl); Ohio St (2006 BCS) and Alabama (2009 SEC Champ.)
First time since 2017 that both teams are not in the Top 10. Last time neither team was ranked – 2013. Last time unranked team won – 2014: UF 34-20 over No. 9 UGA.
UGA leads the nation in nearly every defensive category but FLA is the highest ranked offense the Dogs will have faced to this point of the season (501.7 ypg good for 7th nationally).
UGA has six TD passes that covered 38 yards or more, only one of those vs. and SEC opponent (Auburn).
UF’s 1,780 rushing yards is the most through 7 games since 2009. The 6.3 yards per carry is on pace to set a school record.
RRS PREDICTION: Georgia 24, Florida 14 (Georgia favored by 14)
Missouri (3-4, 0-3 SEC) at Vanderbilt (2-6, 0-4 SEC)
2 p.m. CDT • SECN
Nashville, Tenn. • Vanderbilt Stadium (40,350)
Series: Mizzou leads, 8-4-1 (Last meeting - 2020, @ Mizzou, 41-0)
Last week: Miss St. def. Vandy, 45-6; Missouri did not play
What about VANDY/MIZZOU
Battle of the two worst defenses in the SEC – Vandy 458 yards allowed per game (120th nationally; Mizz – 488 ypg (126th)
Mizzu kicker Harrison Mevis has made 16 straight field goal attempts, second nationally and tops in SEC.
Vandy’s defense has recorded two INTs in each of the last three games. Deshaun Jenkins has an interception in all three games.
Vanderbilt is last in the country in scoring offense, ave. 13.2 ppg.
RRS Prediction: Missouri 38, Vanderbilt 20 (Mizzou favored by 16.5)
(10) OLE MISS (6-1, 3-1 SEC) at (18) AUBURN (5-2, 2-1 SEC)
6 p.m. CDT • ESPN
Auburn, Ala. • Jordan-Hare Stadium (87,451)
Series: AUB leads, 34-10 (Last meeting – 2020, @ UM, 35-28)
Last Week: Ole Miss def. LSU, 31-17; Auburn did not play
What about AUB /OLE MISS
Ole Miss has won just three times in Auburn with the last coming in 2015. Auburn has won five straight in the series and is 34-11 all time in the series.
In the last win over Arkansas, Bo Nix had 292 yards and 2 TD passes, his highest totals this season. His career high came against Ole Miss in 2019, 30-44/340 yds.
Ole Miss is ranked in the top 10 for the first time since 2015, the last season the Rebels beat Auburn.
Ole Miss ranks second in the SEC in sacks with 3.3.
Ole Miss leads the SEC in rushing with 263.3 ypg. Auburn is allowing 196 ypg in rushing.
Ole Miss DE Sam Williams leads the league in forced fumbles and is 7th nationally (.43 per game).
Auburn ranks second in the SEC in TFLs with 56 through first seven games.
RRS Prediction: Ole Miss 31, Auburn 27 (Auburn favored by 1.5)
(12) Kentucky (6-0, 4-0 SEC) at Mississippi State (4-3, 2-2 SEC)
6 p.m. CDT • SECN
Starkville, Miss. • Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field (61,337)
Series: Tied, 24-24 (Last meeting, 2020 - KY, 24-2)
Last week: Miss St def. Vandy, 45-6; Kentucky did not play
What about KY/MISS ST
Last road team to win in this series was 2014 – MSU (45-31). Series is tied 24-24, only one in SEC. UK has not won in Starkville since 2008.
MSU completed passes to 13 different receivers against Vandy. The Dogs passed for 461 yards, fourth most in school history.
UK RB Chris Rodriguez leads the SEC in rushing, ave. 110.7 ypg.
MSU OL Charlie Cross earned his second SEC Offensive Lineman of the Week award last week.
KY defense is allowing 320 yards per game, which is third best in SEC.
RRS Prediction: Kentucky 27, Mississippi St 13 (Ky favored by 1.5)
OPEN: Alabama; Arkansas; LSU; South Carolina; Tennessee; Texas A&M
RRS RECORD: Last week: 5-0 (1-3 vs. spread); Season: 58-16 (28-34 vs. spread)